2023 Predictions

A disruptive year of AI, Blockchain, and SocialMedia advances

Niels Bohr, the Nobel laureate in Physics and father of the atomic model, is quoted as saying, “Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future!” With that caveat, here is my take on 2023:

1. The Year of AI: This prediction is so obvious it’s tough to call it a prediction—with the release of chatGPT (chat.openai.com) last month, we are already seeing stunning changes in the application of AI, particularly to business. On one hand, it’s easy to look at the progress of AI and just say: “ok, sure, it’s getting better”.
   
   However, something interesting happened with chatGPT. It’s good enough to replace some humans in many circumstances, and in other cases it can take already productive humans and turn them into absolute superstars.
   
   We are seeing this play out live right now: I know of a number of companies that have now reduced vendor spend with marketing agencies by hundreds of thousands of dollars, instead using AI tools to do much of the routine heavy lifting. Similarly, between chatGPT and GitHub CoPilot, talented software engineers are seeing their productivity go through the roof, and lawyers can much more rapidly review contracts. The number of use cases is literally exploding, and will only increase as OpenAI and others release API’s to further spur innovation.
   
   A recessionary environment is only going to accelerate adoption. If it’s cheaper and more effective to use AI tools (or fewer humans augmented by AI), the return on investment is going to drive rapid adoption.
   
   I’ll write more on this in a future post, the real impact of AI at least in the medium run will less about the technology and more about the societal and business changes driven by its adoption.

2. The Year of Blockchain: Many of you might think this an unlikely prediction. After all, the implosion of FTX and the surrounding carnage even in the most charitable interpretation has highlighted the excesses and relative immaturity of the crypto space. It’s easy to write off the whole space as being a Ponzi scheme or worse.
   
   However, I’ll take a contrarian view. The current environment is effectively a